County-Level Life Expectancy Change: A Novel Metric for Monitoring Public Health.

Life expectancy (LE) is a core measure of population health. Studies have confirmed the predictive importance of modifiable determinants on LE, but less is known about their association with LE change over time at the US county level. In addition, we explore the predictive association of LE change with COVID-19 mortality. We used a linear regression model to calculate county-level annual LE change from 2011 to 2016, and categorized LE change (≤-0.1 years change per year as decreasing, ≥0.1 years as increasing, otherwise no change). A multinomial regression model was used to determine the association between modifiable determinants of health indicators from the County Health Rankings and LE change. A Poisson regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between change in life expectancy and COVID-19 mortality through September 2021. Among 2943 counties, several modifiable determinants of health were significantly associated with odds of being in increasing LE or decreasing LE counties, including adult smoking, obesity, unemployment, and proportion of children in poverty. The presence of an increasing LE in 2011-2016, as compared to no change, was significantly associated with a 5% decrease in COVID-19 mortality between 2019 and 2021 (ß = 0.953, 95% CI: 0.943, 0.963). We demonstrated that change in LE at the county level is a useful metric for tracking public health progress, measuring the impact of public health initiatives, and gauging preparedness and vulnerability for future public health emergencies.

Changes in BMI During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Experts hypothesized increased weight gain in children associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Our objective was to evaluate whether the rate of change of child body mass index (BMI) increased during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with prepandemic years. METHODS: The study population of 1996 children ages 2 to 19 years with at least 1 BMI measure before and during the COVID-19 pandemic was drawn from 38 pediatric cohorts across the United States participating in the Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes-wide cohort study. We modeled change in BMI using linear mixed models, adjusting for age, sex, race, ethnicity, maternal education, income, baseline BMI category, and type of BMI measure. Data collection and analysis were approved by the local institutional review board of each institution or by the central Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes institutional review board. RESULTS: BMI increased during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with previous years (0.24 higher annual gain in BMI during the pandemic compared with previous years, 95% confidence interval 0.02 to 0.45). Children with BMI in the obese range compared with the healthy weight range were at higher risk for excess BMI gain during the pandemic, whereas children in higher-income households were at decreased risk of BMI gain. CONCLUSIONS: One effect of the COVID-19 pandemic is an increase in annual BMI gain during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with the 3 previous years among children in our national cohort. This increased risk among US children may worsen a critical threat to public health and health equity.